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Just enjoyed a quiet weekend

Just enjoyed a quiet weekend, before the craziness of the advent period. My wife and I went for a beach walk yesterday in beautiful North Norfolk, and remarked just how it mild has been. Especially yesterday, so mild in fact that children were building sandcastles and paddling about in the sea – oblivious to the fact that it was November the 14th in a balmy 13 degrees C, sunshine and just a few passing clouds.


I remember the Mid-November’s of my childhood, and I can tell you – I would not be paddling in the sea: The ambient air temperatures were then oscillating most commonly between 5 and 8 degrees maximum and often frosty or foggy by night.


It just made me think why is it so mild this year  – right into the gateway month to winter: One reason is the jet stream  – being amplified but buckled north – in a summer pattern, with the UK on the warm side of the line. The second reason is the exceptionally warm seas: I checked the surface sea temperature anomaly (the difference between now and the average), almost all the north Atlantic, bar a tiny pool in the north sea, is above normal:  1- 4 degrees above in places, and including Hudson Bay and the Baffin sea – so it is no wonder it is so mild…

sst anomaly

we are bathed by sea in all directions on this small island nation. It means there is less chance of wintry weather but it does not mean there is no chance of wintry weather in the advent period. For this to happen the synoptics would have to be just right, with a strong and sustained Arctic blast, Then the higher sea temperatures could add to convective precipitation and provide some very heavy snow falls, but anything short of super cold air would see those high sea temperatures melt any snowy precipitation and deliver a sobering dose of cold rain or sleet. The La Nina could supply the buckled jet that could favour such northerly winds, but the story will be written by such a sustained and potent northerly that would deliver sub -10 air (at 850 Hectopascals) right down across the UK, Interestingly, that is what is currently modelled for the 27th, but it is a long way away in forecasting terms. Here’s a sneaky peek at the 24th showing that super cold air heading on it’s way down towards us (see if that blue air reaches us – as that is the key)…


COP 26 ends with some successes and some failures: It is of course just a steppingstone in a long road of change  – and we know there is a massive gulf to be filled – it is both a long and a winding road: It was great news on finance, bad news ref. coal mining: Well – it is not perfect yet, and the way politics works on short term electoral cycles, I fear we’ll need to see more weather disasters before voters push for action, by which time – of course it’ll be too late to change things: But that as they say is the way us humans work: Not until the climate slaps us in face hard enough to hurt, will the politics follow the crowd’s cries for action. We should of course been listening to the taps on the shoulder we were getting a long time ago – and taking action then: That’s a lesson for life on everything of course: Listen to the taps: the emotions are informants to when something is wrong: then all you’ll need is a tweak of change to head off trouble:  This is as true of climate as it is of business, personal relationships, financial control, happiness and all things in our life: Even better than reacting to the taps – is to have great goals and dreams – written down and made SMART…that’s what we do at JBA – set great goals, but also listen to the taps on the stuff we forgot or hadn’t prioritised  to set goals for.

sst anomaly